B. CRUISE MARKET POTENTIAL

Future Market

A key objective of this study is to project the number of travelers who will cruise within the next three years. The approach taken to address this objective includes:

  Best case scenario

 Worst case scenario

 Most likely case scenario

Market projections are provided for:

 Core Target Market – Adults 25+ and HH income $40k+

 Affluent Market – Adults 25+ and HH income $60k+

 Most Affluent Market – Adults 25+ and HH income $80k+

Projections are based on past cruisers’ and cruise intenders’ stated consumer intent and do not consider additional cruise line capacity.

Projections by Market Type

Core Market (25+/$40,000)

As indicated below, the most likely scenario is that 29,728,000 adults will cruise within the next three years, based on respondents’ intent to cruise.

Affluent Market (25+/$60,000+)

The higher income requirement (with a reduced population) restricts the market to 21,818,000. The size of the drop (from 29,728,000) indicates that a large segment of future cruisers (about one forth) earn between $40,000 to $60,000.

Most Affluent Market (25+/$80,000+)

The most limited market (smallest population) drops to 14,135,000 potential cruisers.